For the first time since the outbreak of the full-scale war, businesses have optimistically assessed their prospects – survey

Businesses have, for the first time since the onset of the full-scale war, optimistically evaluated the prospects of their economic development.

This was reported in a press release by the National Bank of Ukraine based on the survey results of company leaders in the second quarter of 2023.

The business expectations index has risen to 104.5% compared to 91.2% in the first quarter of 2023.

Improvements in assessments occurred in businesses across all types of economic activities, as well as across all components of the index.

According to the National Bank, businesses expect an increase in business activity over the next 12 months.

Against the backdrop of the energy system's recovery, the gradual revitalisation of domestic demand, and the strengthening of the hryvnia's exchange rate, respondents expect growth in the volume of goods and services produced and are also positively minded about the development of their own enterprises. Inflationary and exchange rate expectations have also improved at the same time.

In the second quarter of the year, the expected annual inflation was 15.7% compared to 20.7% in the previous quarter. 46.6% of surveyed businesses believe that inflation will not exceed 15.3% over the next 12 months.

Expectations regarding the level of depreciation of the national currency continued to soften: the average exchange rate expected by respondents in 12 months is 40.43 hryvnia/ US dollar (in the previous quarter – 42.18 hryvnia/US dollar).

It is noted that businesses planning to raise loans prefer those in the national currency.

The most significant obstacle to obtaining new loans remains high interest rates – 49.7% of responses. At the same time, the influence of the "presence of other sources of financing" factor has increased the most – by 5.5 pp to 42.0%.