Sowing campaign has started in Ukraine for the 2024 harvest
Its results will likely be significantly worse than last year's
Traditionally, in the second half of August in the southern regions of Ukraine, the sowing campaign for winter crops for the next year's harvest begins. Although this year's campaign is taking place under relatively calmer and more predictable conditions than in 2022, the forecasts for its results are more pessimistic.
Mind delved into the reasons for the potential reduction in next year's harvest at the beginning of the production cycle.
How many hectares were sown with winter crops in 2022, aiming for the 2023 harvest?
In 2022, the area of winter grain sowings was 4.5 million hectares. Of these, 3.8 million ha were winter wheat, 613,000 ha were barley, and 79,200 ha were rye.
In the last peaceful season before the full-scale invasion – in autumn 2021 – the sowing area of winter crops exceeded 6.5 million ha.
How much will be sown this autumn?
Without exception, expert forecasts indicate a reduction in sowing areas compared even to the previous full-fledged war year.
What is more significant – both small farms and powerful agro-holdings are talking about plans to reduce areas.
The only disagreement is on the scale of the reduction. The consensus forecast anticipates a decrease in sowing areas by 1-1.5 million ha.
What is the reason for the reduction, given that the industry has become accustomed to working in wartime conditions over a year?
Indeed, sectoral factors have come to the fore, only part of which is due to military actions.
The main reasons for the reduction in production volumes are:
- Deficit of working capital in agricultural producers,
- Occupation of parts of the territories and landmines,
- Collapse of export logistics following the shutdown of the 'grain corridor' and the absence of prospects for its resumption,
- Low purchase prices due to the high cost of logistics.
For crops, this means a decrease of 5-6 million tonnes of grain (wheat and barley), which is almost a third of this year's results.
Is there a threat of food shortage in the domestic market?
No, there is no risk for any crop.
The 2023 harvests of grains and oilseeds, thanks to favourable weather conditions, are approaching 75-76 million tonnes, which far exceeds the domestic market's needs.
Given the export restrictions, the opposite problem may arise – high stock levels and correspondingly low prices for producers.
What could stimulate an increase in sowing areas?
First and foremost, understanding the prospects of export logistics. Currently, news in this area can hardly be described as optimistic.
Over the past week, russia has twice posed direct threats to ships in the Black Sea.
And European countries, which imposed a temporary ban on importing Ukrainian grain to their markets and transit through their territories set to end on 15 September, are insisting on extending the embargo until the end of the year.
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