Germany starts preparing for a potential Russian attack on NATO in 2025 - Bild

German authorities are considering the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank in the summer of 2025. Such a scenario is contained in a secret report by the country's Ministry of Defense.

Source. Bild writes about this with reference to the document.

The Bundeswehr describes possible actions by Russia and the West a month before the "inevitable outbreak of war," but does not provide full data on the number and movement of NATO troops for security reasons.

According to the document, in February 2024, Russia may announce another wave of mobilization and conscript another 200,000 people. After that, Moscow will launch an offensive in Ukraine, which will succeed against the backdrop of weakening Western support for Kyiv.

In July 2024, according to the Bundeswehr's scenario, Russia will launch "first a covert and then an open" attack on the West. It will include cyberattacks and "other forms of hybrid warfare," mainly in the Baltic states.

The first clashes will be followed by large-scale exercises with Belarus. By October, the situation could escalate if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad.

In December 2024, Russia could artificially provoke a "border conflict" in the Suwalki corridor, which actually runs along the border of Poland and Lithuania, separating the Baltic states from other NATO members.

Then, according to the Bundeswehr, at an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia will accuse the West of preparing an attack on the country.

In January 2025, Poland and the Baltic states will report to the NATO Council on the growing threat from Russia. In March, Moscow will deploy additional troops to the borders with the Baltic states. In Belarus alone, the Kremlin will have two tank divisions and a motorized infantry division, totaling more than 70,000 soldiers.

In May of the same year, the North Atlantic Alliance will deploy 300,000 troops to the eastern flank, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers. The scenario does not specify whether this will deter Russia from attacking.

The German Ministry of Defense did not comment on the document, but noted that "consideration of various scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of daily military activities."

Earlier, the head of the Bundeswehr, Boris Pistorius, said that the European defense industry has 5-8 years to increase arms production to the required level.

In turn, the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP) warned in November that NATO countries have 6-10 years to prepare for a potential war with Russia.

Background. As a reminder, NATO believes that Russia's war against Ukraine will last at least until 2026. Russia is losing 300 soldiers a day, the Alliance's Deputy Secretary General said.