ISW: Russia will be able to launch a large-scale offensive in only one direction
Experts suggest that this direction could be the western part of Donetsk region
The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has stated in its latest report that the Russian army will be able to sustain offensive operations in no more than one operational area.
ISW experts suggest that this area could be the western part of Donetsk region, in particular the area of Avdiivka, which has recently come under the control of the Russian military.
The Institute for the Study of War cites the unsuccessful attack by Russian forces on 30 March near the village of Tonenke, located near Avdiivka, as evidence that the Russian army may concentrate its main efforts there.
According to the report, in this area, Ukrainian troops apparently managed to repel an attack by an entire mechanised battalion of Russian troops.
Citing Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen, the ISW authors write that on 30 March, the Russian army sent 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles into action near Tonenke.
"Geo-located footage released on Sunday shows a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armoured vehicles and tanks along the road northwest of Tonenke," ISW reports.
"Ukrainian soldiers say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles during the attack; they note that the attempted frontal assault did not result in a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defensive line," the report said.
According to experts of the Institute for the Study of War, the scale of the attack on 30 March is a significant fact, as Russian forces have not resorted to such actions since the beginning of the offensive on Avdiivka in October 2023.
"Ukraine's ability to repel the attack on 30 March, especially near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat quickly, is a positive indication that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can defend themselves against future large-scale Russian offensives and the expected offensive in the summer of 2024," experts say.
The scale of the Russian offensive near Avdiivka suggests that the Russian military leadership considers this area to be a priority, and that it is here that the upcoming summer offensive may be concentrated, the ISW report suggests.
"Ukrainian officials have recently warned of a concentration of Russian troops on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and in western Zaporizhzhia region. However, ISW continues to believe that the Russian army will be able to launch a concentrated and large-scale offensive in only one operational area due to Russia's manpower problems and planning constraints," the institute's experts say.
Background. Earlier, they wrote that it is difficult for Russia to counter Ukrainian drone attacks – the Russians are forming mobile fire groups, but it will be difficult for them to deploy them on the required scale.
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