Intelligence spokesman: there is no way for Ukraine to win this war on the battlefield alone

The situation at the frontline is the most difficult for Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and it may get worse, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, told The Economist in an interview.

According to him, the Russian military has been ordered to "take something" before the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on 9 May or, if that fails, before Vladimir Putin's visit to China a week later.

"Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us," Skibitsky said.

Skibitsky told the magazine that he sees no way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. According to him, even if Ukraine could push Russian troops back to the 1991 borders, it would not end the war.

According to Skibitsky, such wars can only end in negotiations, and now both sides are trying to take the most favourable position before potential talks. Meaningful negotiations can begin no earlier than the second half of 2025, he said.

According to Skibitsky, in May, Russia plans to implement a "three-level" plan to destabilise the situation in Ukraine.

The main factor will be the military one, as it will be weeks before Ukraine receives US military aid approved by Congress.

The second factor is a disinformation campaign in Ukraine aimed at undermining the mobilisation and political legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose presidential term theoretically expires on 20 May.

The third part of the plan, according to Skibitsky, is Russia's campaign to isolate Ukraine internationally.

Ukraine is particularly concerned about the town of Chasiv Yar, as its capture would open the way for Russians to take the last unoccupied towns in Donetsk region. According to Skibitsky, it is likely that the occupation of Chasiv Yar is only a matter of time before the town falls, just like Avdiivka, which was completely bombed by Russian forces in February.

"Not today and not tomorrow, of course, but it all depends on our reserves and supplies," the general said. He acknowledged that Ukraine is far from stabilising the situation and that Russia is using everything it can to achieve its goals.

The Russian army is no longer the same as it was in 2022, and now operates as "a single organism, with a clear plan and under a single command," Skibitsky said.

He also suggests that Russia is preparing for an offensive in Kharkiv and Sumy regions. The main attack, he predicts, will begin "in late May or early June".

According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Russia has a total of 514,000 ground troops involved in the Ukrainian operation.

At the same time, the northern grouping of the Russian Armed Forces, which is based across the border from Kharkiv, has 35,000 troops, but it is planned to expand to 50-70,000. russia is also "creating a reserve unit" (15 to 20,000) that can be added to the main forces.

Skibitsky notes that this is "not enough" to capture a large city, but could be enough for a smaller task.

"A quick operation to get in and out is possible. But an operation to capture Kharkiv or Sumy is a different order. The Russians know this. And we know it," added the DIU spokesman.

Background. Earlier, Mind reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had moved west of Berdychiv, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka. Despite tactical successes, the enemy has no operational advantage, as Ukrainian troops inflict "maximum losses" on the enemy, both in personnel and military equipment.