Threat of secondary US sanctions cuts off Russia's foreign trade - FT

The threat of secondary US sanctions against banks working with Russia has effectively tightened the screws and sharply complicated all foreign trade payments for Russia.

Source. This was reported by the Financial Times.

In the first quarter, total exports from Turkey to Russia fell by a third to $2.1 billion.

And exports to Russia and its neighbouring countries of dual-use goods, which are not explicitly banned but have military applications, fell by 40%, to $93 million.

That is, the drop in exports to Russia was not offset by an increase in supplies to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

There are ways around this, but they are becoming more expensive and inconvenient. In a chain of transactions involving several banks with conversion, each participant will take a commission, and even for large companies (such as Norilsk Nickel), the total losses in such a chain reach 5-7% of the amount.

It is still possible to trade in rubles, and Russia has already converted 40% of its exports and imports into the national currency, but this channel also faces the narrowness of the base and limited convertibility.

"It's getting worse every month," the publication quotes a major Russian investor as saying: "One month it's dollars, the next month it's euros, and in six months there will be nothing left. The logical outcome is that Russia will turn into Iran."

Background. The day before, it became known that the Turkish bank DenizBank, which is one of the largest credit institutions in the country, has practically stopped opening accounts for Russian citizens since the beginning of 2024.

It was also reported that Chinese banks began blocking payments from Russia in yuan. Banks fear secondary sanctions and US pressure after the 12th sanctions package was adopted.