The rate of shell production in Russia could provide its troops with a key advantage in Ukraine, especially if Kyiv is left without additional US assistance.
Source. This was reported by CNN with reference to NATO intelligence.
To wage war against Ukraine, Russia produces about 250,000 artillery shells per month, or about 3 million per year, while the United States and Europe together can produce only about 1.2 million rounds of ammunition annually to supply Kyiv.
According to CNN interlocutors, Russia's superior rate of arms production could provide its troops with a key advantage in the offensive.
"What is happening now is a war of production," CNN quoted a senior NATO official as saying. – "The situation in Ukraine depends on how well each side is prepared to fight this war.
At the same time, even the goal set by the US military to produce 100,000 artillery rounds per month by the end of 2025, which is less than half of Russia's monthly production, is still unattainable due to the blocking of a new $60 billion aid package for Ukraine in Congress, CNN notes.
According to military analysts, despite the supply of Western weapons systems to Ukraine, including the planned transfer of F-16 fighter jets, they are unlikely to decide the outcome of the war – it will depend on who can produce more artillery shells.
Currently, Russian troops fire about 10,000 shells a day, compared to 2,000 on the Ukrainian side. In some parts of the frontline, this ratio is even worse, the European intelligence official said.
Artillery ammunition factories in Russia operate around the clock and seven days a week, with shifts lasting 12 hours. About 3.5 million Russians are currently employed in the defence sector, compared to 2-2.5 million before the war, CNN writes, citing a NATO official.
In addition, Russia imports ammunition from other countries, including Iran and North Korea.
According to CNN's interlocutors, despite the prevailing production rates in Russia, Western countries will eventually catch up and produce better quality ammunition, officials and the military believe.
At the same time, intelligence officials believe that neither side will be able to achieve any major success in the near future, but in the long run, the mathematical calculations favour Moscow, especially if Ukraine is left without additional US assistance.
Background. Meanwhile, analysts argue that if aid to Ukraine is not urgently increased, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may lose the ability to hold the front by the summer.