Zelensky's Peace Plan: How the US is currently assessing Ukraine's demands to stop russian aggression
The document that russia might sign will be symbolic, and the aggressor will distort it in its rhetoric
Peaceful negotiations regarding the conclusion of the war in Ukraine is one of the painful and complex topics for discussion. It is no wonder that several events around the world have been dedicated to it. The latest took place at the beginning of August in Saudi Arabia and received considerable attention from the global community, mainly due to the significant number of participants from various countries (russia was not invited). The top 10 demands from Ukraine, which President Zelensky put forward at the end of last year, remain unchanged, providing grounds for new discussions and hope for their implementation. However, the interpretation of these demands can vary in different countries around the world. Yuri Vanetik, lawyer, political strategist, and member of the Board of Directors of the international human rights agency WEST SUPPORT (USA), told Mind how ordinary citizens and politicians perceive these demands in the United States.
Read also: How the Saudis helped Ukraine: Three results of the 'peace summit' in Jeddah
Zelensky's Peace Plan first appeared in mid-November 2022 during the 17th G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia.
The plan consists of 10 points that, according to the Ukrainian authorities' conviction, would put an end to the war initiated by russia.
Below are the key points of this plan from the perspective of how Americans currently assess its feasibility and implementation prospects.
Radiation and nuclear safety
Undoubtedly, everyone in the West wants the russians to leave the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The question is how to compel them to do so.
In the USA, recent discussions are ongoing about the meeting in Saudi Arabia, where the central topic was precisely Zelensky's peace plan and its key points. In the States, a possibility is being debated that there could be substantial pressure on russia, including from Saudi Arabia, and an exchange of something for something else.
Saudi Arabia today is making significant efforts to align itself with the USA. It aims to develop tourism and is somewhat relaxing its rules regarding attracting tourists from around the world in order to obtain a similar benefit as the UAE, which receives substantial revenue from foreigners, including Americans. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia wants to appear more humane by Western standards.
Therefore, it's quite challenging to say how the russians could leave the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The more various countries in the world exert pressure on russia from different directions, the higher the likelihood that russian military personnel will eventually leave the Ukrainian nuclear power plant. At least, that's the perspective held in the USA.
Read also: The African 'peace' mission in Ukraine and russia failed. Why did this delegation come anyway?
Food security
Today, the coalition against russia is expanding precisely because the russians are obstructing the movement of food into countries that are waiting for it and relying on it. Both Africa and China will now begin to criticise russia more and set forth certain conditions.
Energy security
It is an issue of the West's investment in the reconstruction of Ukraine. Naturally, this will be more evident when there is greater stability, during a colder phase of the conflict, or when it is considered officially closed.
Apart from the physical reconstruction of Ukraine's infrastructure, it is necessary to utilise technologies to enhance its protection, particularly against hackers and other risks. This involves creating both a physical barrier and virtual protection to not only rebuild Ukraine but also ensure its maximum security across all domains. In this process, Western countries' investments and their direct participation in ensuring the security of Ukrainian infrastructure will play a primary role.
Read also: How russia creates new risks for Ukraine’s national security, attempting to regain its lost position in the EU gas market
Release of all prisoners of war and deported people
Perhaps, this is the most challenging aspect of Zelensky's plan. Returning people is an admission of a crime. However, russia does not admit this, as its rhetoric in this matter is well-known – "these individuals wanted to leave on their own," they were supposedly "freed from oppression in Ukraine," and so on. It is not enough for russia to be offered something in return for such a step. This is a very scrupulous issue for the kremlin, as it needs to save face. And how can this be done if people return to Ukraine en masse?
Therefore, yes, this is happening, but covertly, without media coverage or publicity. Secret paths are being opened, allowing individuals the opportunity to return. For now, this is the only option, as russia will never officially acknowledge that they have captured and detained individuals against their will.
Explaining something to putin's administration becomes difficult, especially through their own propaganda to the russian people, most of whom staunchly believe that they are 'liberating' Ukraine. It's challenging to go against their own propaganda, which only echoes the narrative of 'liberation' and nothing else.
Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity
In the US, there are certain hesitations regarding this matter. Currently, according to various polls, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of those who want the US to reduce aid to Ukraine. However, this increase is currently quite minor. And the main reason lies not so much with the Americans themselves, but rather with what is happening within Ukraine.
Our people are hearing about corrupt military personnel, bribery among politicians, oligarchs engaged in theft, and businessmen who are fleeing. Thus, the number of those suggesting that the US should cut aid to Ukraine has increased by 5%. This is not a radical shift. I can assume that this might be manipulation. But such sentiments exist: "How long can we finance a war?", "We need to think more about the US and not get involved in conflicts that don't directly concern the US," and that "some sort of compromise should be reached."
Regarding the idea of a 'compromise', the majority of people in the US – both Democrats and Republicans – believe that russia will not agree to return to Ukraine's internationally recognised borders of 1991. In the US, it's understood that the kremlin will insist that certain territories of Ukraine should remain within russia.
This perspective is voiced both among the general population and among politicians. At the same time, it's well understood that if russia doesn't relinquish the occupied territories and the situation 'freezes' for a while, partisan warfare from the Ukrainian side will continue incessantly, and Ukrainians will never accept that someone has taken away their rightful lands.
Drones will fly towards russia, partisan groups will act, and what they call 'cotton' (explosions) will occur. This will never stop. It will be a situation similar to that between Israel and Palestine – a long-lasting and enduring conflict.
Restoration of justice
This is something the US desires. In the past, manipulation and concealment were possible, but now technology reveals everything. While it is possible to distort something using tools like Photoshop or artificial intelligence, a lot of information is still being recorded and documented.
Currently, any information can be obtained from virtually anywhere if there is a goal. Therefore, evidence of russia's crimes will be uncovered. Crimes will be substantiated, and tribunals will take place both in Ukraine and in Europe.
However, the likelihood of any conviction occurring within russia is slim. For something similar to happen there, a radical change in leadership would be necessary. A completely new figure would have to come to power in the kremlin and admit, "We made a huge mistake, the blame lies entirely with our predecessors," and so on. There is such a possibility. After all, no one expected the USSR to collapse one day. But I think it is unrealistic to expect this from today's russia. Especially since the countries that are in some kind of solidarity with it will not support such tribunals.
Prevention of escalation
Ensuring real security guarantees for Ukraine is the most challenging aspect in terms of implementation. Practically, no treaty can fully ensure this.
Indeed, treaties are important factors, protocols too, but we're dealing with the actual situation. It is similar to how businessmen sign a document, say a non-disclosure agreement. But if someone breaches it, then what? Will someone engage in legal battles with the violator? It's possible, but it's lengthy, costly, and very cumbersome. And in this case, who, how, and where do you litigate? Pursuing legal action against an aggressor who has already attacked and is currently causing destruction would be a drawn-out process spanning years.
Therefore, any treaty is more of a psychological factor. The strongest guarantee would be a radical change within russia itself. That's the only real guarantee.
Formalising the end of the war
A certain act declaring the end of the war is possible. However, it will be important primarily as a symbolic gesture. It might likely be a compromise that allows russia to tell its citizens, "We've achieved our goal."
For Ukraine, it will also provide an opportunity to declare that Ukrainians have achieved their goal and will continue to strive for it further. It will be an opportunity for the West to claim that things have supposedly "turned in our favour, and now Ukraine's restoration will commence."
Yet, such a document would remain symbolic and would still be subject to manipulation in russia. The kremlin would still inject elements into it that are crucial for their propaganda. How else could they save face? They certainly won't agree to a document that unequivocally signifies russian capitulation.
Therefore, it will be an act purely for history. CNN will interpret it in its own way, and Al Jazeera will find something of its own in it. And the russian federation will have a purely kremlin interpretation, no matter how unambiguously such a document is written for all those convicted. russia will interpret it through its propaganda. They are used to turning a lot of things upside down. They don't seem to know how to do anything else.
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