How the Saudis helped Ukraine: Three results of the 'peace summit' in Jeddah
In Saudi Arabia, delegates from 42 countries discussed how to end the russian-Ukrainian war without russia
From the 5th to the 6th of August 2023, international discussions took place in the port city of Jeddah, on the shores of the Red Sea, aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. China participated in such discussions for the first time, wielding both the stick and the carrot in influencing russia.
As defined by Saudi Arabia, the summit in Jeddah aimed at "strengthening dialogue and cooperation through the exchange of ideas, coordination, and discussions on the international level."
Kyiv expressed hope that consultations in Saudi Arabia would lay the foundation for a global 'peace summit', where world leaders this autumn could come to an agreement on ending the war on Ukrainian terms.
In turn, moscow, not invited to Jeddah, deemed this meeting doomed to fail as a "Western attempt to mobilise the Global South" in support of the peace plan of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Mind has examined the actual geopolitical outcomes of the meeting and how foreign analysts comment on them.
The Jeddah Summit was three times larger in scale than the Copenhagen meeting
The discussions in Jeddah marked the second international summit on the level of national security advisers dedicated to Ukraine, surpassing the first one held in the Danish capital at the end of June 2023. The mere fact that those consultations took place and engaged representatives from the Global South was considered a success for Ukraine. And now, five weeks later, the Saudis managed to organise a similar event on a threefold scale.
Delegations from Australia, Argentina, Bahrain, Bulgaria, Brazil, Denmark, Canada, Czech Republic, Chile, China, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, UAE, South Africa, Poland, South Korea, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Comoros Islands Union, the UK, USA, Japan, Qatar, as well as the European Union and the United Nations participated in the consultations in Jeddah.
The fact that Jeddah attracted three times as many participants as Copenhagen, according to the summit organisers, "demonstrates a strong global interest in establishing stable and lasting peace".
"I'm honestly optimistic about the summit, it will be a big success compared to the Copenhagen one two months ago," quoted The National, Salman Al Ansari, a geopolitical researcher from Saudi Arabia. "And in the spirit of realism, I don't expect an immediate breakthrough, but it will most probably pave the way for a comprehensive peace plan."
Four BRICS members discussed peace terms in the absence of russia
China, India, South Africa, and Brazil – all members of the BRICS bloc except russia – were present at the summit in Jeddah. Analysts interpreted this as an effort by russia's partners to improve their international image and protect themselves from the potential losses of putin's army in the war.
"I do think it's important that China is there. The fact that China has gone despite russia's absence says to me that the Chinese are carefully hedging away from their unstinting support for Moscow in this war… China has an important role to play here, mainly because if anybody has influence over Putin, it is Xi Jinping. We will need China to lean on Moscow at the appropriate moment," quoted Deutsche Welle, Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC.
According to reports from news agencies, China actively and constructively discussed peaceful initiatives in Jeddah and pledged to participate in the upcoming rounds of negotiations regarding Ukraine. This raises hopes for an end to the war.
As the primary buyer of russian oil and a supplier of microchips, Beijing can exert economic pressure on putin to compel him to accept peace terms. Additionally, China could offer russia and Ukraine multi-billion-dollar recovery programmes as an incentive for ending the conflict, which is detrimental to most countries around the world.
Saudi Arabia joins peaceful negotiations on Ukraine
The largest oil monarchy has successfully hosted a summit of national security advisers in Jeddah, positioning it as a serious international forum. The kingdom will now seek to build upon this diplomatic success to establish itself as an international peacemaker.
According to Joost Hiltermann, Middle East programme director for the International Crisis Group, Saudi Arabia organised the Jeddah summit in part to enhance its image following past failed strategies, such as intervention in Yemen and the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
"Moving forward, Riyadh wants to be in the company of an India or a Brazil, because only as a club can these middle powers hope to have impact on the world stage," reflects Joost Hiltermann.
As previously reported by Mind, Saudi Arabia has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Ukrainian war. Currently, in close cooperation with russia, it regulates oil prices in the market, reaping multi-billion-dollar windfalls.
At the same time, the oil kingdom supports UN Security Council resolutions condemning russia's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territories. Last year, Riyadh assisted Kyiv in brokering a POW exchange agreement with russia, and in May, it hosted Volodymyr Zelensky at an Arab summit in Jeddah, where the Ukrainian president accused Arab leaders of "turning a blind eye" to the military crimes of the russian army.
Experts characterise Saudi Arabia's policy as a "classic balancing strategy." By maintaining good relations with Ukraine, russia, and China, the oil monarchy can expect a softer response from these countries to Saudi initiatives aimed at resolving the conflict.
Saudi Arabia's main proposal, expectedly, will be its plan for ending the war. The kingdom aims to present it as a more realistic alternative to Zelensky's peace formula. According to the Italian outlet Corriere della Sera, Saudi Arabia's plan includes provisions for Ukraine's territorial integrity, a ceasefire on all fronts, the initiation of peace talks under the supervision of the UN, and a POW exchange.
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