Erdoğan’s double game: what advantages Turkey gets from the Ukraine war
Chumming up with russia, Ankara tests the patience of the West. What consequences it will bring for Kyiv.
The President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan brings grist to the mills of both sides of the russo-Ukrainian war. Saying that Ankara “stands on the side of Ukraine”, he helps russia to free itself from economic pressure from the United States and the European Union.
“It is a relationship that raises the hackles of Mr. Erdoğan’s NATO allies, as he provides Mr. Putin a sizable hole in the dam of sanctions the West has tried hard to build in its effort to stymie Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine,” writes The New York Times.
The Turkish leader travelled to Tehran on 19 July and to Sochi to negotiate with putin on 5 August, and on 18 August to Lviv to meet Volodymyr Zelensky. Erdoğan said the entire world is feeling the “positive effects” of his shuttle diplomacy, thanks to which the grain corridor was opened, enabling the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea.
Further, the President of Turkey is going to contribute to ending the war through negotiations and then he promises to support Kyiv in reconstruction of Ukrainian infrastructure damaged in the war.
“Where was I two days ago? In Ukraine. Where was I a week ago? In Sochi [Russia]. What for? For establishing world peace. We are on this path for world peace,” quotes Erdoğan Turkish Daily News.
What is worrying is that Erdoğan’s diplomacy strengthens moscow. Turkish exports to the rf soared from $417 million in July 2021 to $730 million in July 2022 and got an incentive for further growth. Five Turkish banks integrated the Mir payment system, granting russian companies an ability to purchase the needed goods in Europe through the Turkish broker firms. By this precedent Ankara undermined the West’s capability to impose sanctions in the world – now it will be difficult for the US and EU to keep other developing economies, like China and India, from assisting russia
How long will Turkey be forgiven its double game? Experts, thinking over this subject, made a few forecasts which Mind suggests to get to know.
Forecast one: russia would fall out with Erdoğan
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the President of russia vladimir putin
Many believe that sooner or later Turkey will cross russia’s “red lines” in its overt support of Ukraine and confront kremlin directly. Such an idea was expressed by Maryna Vorotnyuk, an expert at a British think tank RUSI, in her interview to Deutsche Welle.
“The supply of Bayraktars is a sore point in Russian-Turkish relations. Turkey is treading on Russia's toes in this respect. But at the same time it is doing everything it can to ensure it doesn't hurt too much, and is trying to compensate for it by making concessions in other strategic areas… Ankara has not joined in in imposing sanctions, did not close its airspace to Russian planes after February 24 – thereby allowing Russian planes to fly internationally – and welcomes Russian tourists,” says Maryna Vorotnyuk.
By strengthening its cooperation with russia Ankara receives a flow of currency, which is of critical need – inflation in Turkey reached 79% in July and the lira exchange rate fell by 50% against the dollar over the last year. Though, as the Atlantic Council experts argue, Erdoğan would not dare to take too much from moscow for him not to lose his neutral negotiator status and inflict secondary sanctions on Turkey by the West. In order not to threaten $178 billion trade turnover with the European Union for increasing $35 billion with Russia, Ankara would repeatedly slide toward Ukraine and the West and might ruin fragile bridges of friendship with moscow again.
Relationships between putin and Erdoğan have already reversed from warm to hostile not once.Turkey and russia were on the edge of war in November 2015 after the russian bomber jet Su-24 had been destroyed in the sky over the Turkish-Syrian border, as well as in early 2020 after 33 Turkish soldiers had been killed in the “de-escalation zone” in the north of Syria.Forecast two: the USA would punish Erdoğan
President of the US Joe Biden and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Turkey is the only NATO country that did not support international sanctions against russia after it invaded Ukraine. Recep Erdoğan acts contrary to the Western Alliance, since he is sure of Turkish exceptionalism. There is a growing desire to crack down on Ankara in the US Congress, and the USA may impose financial sanctions against Turkey and also ask western companies and banks to leave the country.
“In Erdoğan’s worldview, outward inconsistencies are harmonized with the thesis of ‘Turkish exceptionalism,’ which holds, among other things, that Turkey may act independently as an exceptional NATO member, that it could be part of the European Union while still embracing an anti-western discourse, and that it should be able to obtain American military assistance while carrying the flag of resistance against the United States... Will Washington accept Turkish exceptionalism? Erdoğan’s attempt to play both sides of the Ukraine war has been a matter of controversy in US policy circles, including in Congress,” writes Mustafa Gurbuz, political analyst at the American University, Washington DC.
There has formed a revisionist group in the US Congress, who want to reconsider the relationship with Erdoğan, the expert says. They argue that the United States should accept the reality that Turkey is no longer a strategic partner, and that Washington should not tolerate the Ankara’s breach of NATO expectations.
Forecast three: putin and Erdoğan would move the West away from Ukraine
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and the UN Secretary General António Guterres
Despite the fact that Turkey is a NATO member and is opposed to russia in four regional conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine, Erdoğan and putin have much in common. These two autocrats are driven not by competition between each other, but by desire to demonstrate to the world their geopolitical magnitude. Erdoğan and putin are in a strong position to edge out the West in Ukraine in a repeat of what they have managed to achieve in Syria. This opinion was expressed on the EUobserver by British political adviser Hugo Blewett-Mundy.
Despite the fact that Turkey is a NATO member and is opposed to russia in four regional conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine, Erdoğan and putin have much in common. These two autocrats are driven not by competition between each other, but by desire to demonstrate to the world their geopolitical magnitude. Erdoğan and putin are in a strong position to edge out the West in Ukraine in a repeat of what they have managed to achieve in Syria. This opinion was expressed on the EUobserver by British political adviser Hugo Blewett-Mundy.
In 2011, as Syria plunged into civil war, russia backed the Alawite regime of president Bashar al-Asad and Turkey, the Sunni Islamists and other opposition forces. The Syrian conflict became internationalised with Russian and Turkish forces coming into direct confrontation with one another. In facilitating ceasefire negotiations between rebel and Assad-backed forces in 2016, Russia and Turkey became principal international actors in finding a resolution to the conflict. They formed the basis of the 'Astana Format' talks, which effectively sidelined the West in the Syrian peace process.
“A similar picture is being played out in the case of the war in Ukraine today. Russia and Turkey have intervened in support of forces opposed to one another with the aim of advancing their common regional interests. The agreement between Kyiv and Moscow on the resumption of grain exports is an indication that a possible negotiated pathway to the conflict has been revived”, admits Hugo Blewett-Mundy.
With fatigue starting to set in on the European continent due to the energy crisis and growing cost of living, there grows a desire in the European countries to negotiate peace. And if they again commit carrying talks to Moscow and Ankara, then, Hugo Blewett-Mundy thinks, there is a risk that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity might be compromised.
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