"Energy Ramstein": European leaders discussed in Paris how Ukraine can survive the winter and recover after the war

Paris this week became the centre of Ukraine's diplomatic effort. It hosted events aimed at making sure that Western partners continue to respond to russian aggression and support our country on its track to victory. In particular, on December 13, the conference "Standing with the Ukrainian People" was held, being informally named "Energy Ramstein" due to the main focus of the event –  the winter challenges for the Ukrainian energy system.

Mind analysed the main achievements of Ukraine at this event and calculated the damage that had been caused to the domestic economy and infrastructure by russian aggression, based on expert estimates.

Who initiated the meeting? The idea to hold a large-scale international conference in Paris to support Ukraine belongs to French President Emmanuel Macron. He proposed it during a telephone conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky on November 1. On the same day, European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson visited Kyiv to discuss the initiative to create a format similar to the military "Ramstein", which will be able to work for security, but in the energy domain.

"Funds, technical support, transformers, generators, energy – this is what is vital for our protection. We will do everything to provide people with electricity and heat this winter," Volodymyr Zelensky reported on the visit of the guest from Brussels in his traditional evening address that day.

"We need the Paris mechanism to help provide timely responses to the challenges of russian energy terrorism," the Ukrainian President outlined the urgent tasks in his December speech at the conference this week.

Why do we need a separate format – the Paris Mechanism? The Paris Mechanism, by design, should become a support for Ukraine on the way to implementing ambitious projects of post-war reconstruction of the country's economy and energy system according to modern standards and technologies, which were discussed at the donor conference in the Swiss Lugano in July this year.

"This renovation should be covered by the terrorist state... We already have dozens of destroyed houses, thousands of wrecked infrastructure facilities, hundreds of ruined schools and hospitals, millions of homeless people. We need to rebuild the country right now," Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak stressed at the conference in Lugano.

Therefore, the restoring experience of the post-war economy in Europe through the introduction of a systematic investment framework, that was known as the Marshall Plan, was in demand in Ukraine nowadays. With only one distinction: donor countries started discussing the economic agenda not after the victory, as it was 75 years ago, but as soon as it became clear that russia's plans to conquer Ukraine collapsed due to the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

What challenges of Ukraine were discussed in Paris? At the moment, all the efforts of the Ukrainian authorities are focused on the current situation in the energy system, which plays a major role in the country's performance. Volodymyr Zelensky outlined the main challenges of this winter and the "value of the matter" during his speech in Paris.

"Energy is one of the keys to ending russian aggression. I believe that this key will be in our hands, in your hands," he said.

In particular, the head of the state also included the import of electricity from the EU countries to the tune of up to 2 gigawatts to the list of urgent needs – "at least until the end of this heating season in Ukraine" for emergency support. This "could cost around €800 million at current prices". In addition to money, a decision by ENTSO-E to technically increase the grid's import capacity would also be needed.

To guarantee a stable energy supply, Zelensky called on the European Union to send special missions to critical energy infrastructure facilities, which "can become a reliable factor in stabilising the situation and proper international control." It is about protecting not only nuclear plants that can be destroyed causing terrible consequences, but also other types of generation, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, cross-border power lines.

"Only the superficial, rapid reconstruction of Ukrainian energy facilities destroyed by russian strikes requires at least 1.5 billion euros," Zelensky noted.

Ukraine also needs funds to purchase about 2 billion cubic metres of gas. These additional volumes are needed to compensate for the deficit in the energy system caused by the destruction of power plants by russian terrorists.

And to save about 1 gigawatt of electricity (with about 2.5 gigawatt deficit in the grid), Kyiv expects to have the purchase of 50 million LED lamps financed.

Who is ready to contribute to solving the problems and what kind of assistance can they provide? The main thesis of Ukraine at the conference in Paris were Volodymyr Zelensky's words to the EU leaders that "our stability needs your leadership." The first consequences are already visible.

The European Commission announced the allocation of about 1 billion euros in winter assistance to support Ukraine. Of this amount, 415 million euros will be spent on energy, 25 million euros on water supply, 38 million euros on food, 17 million euros on healthcare and 22 million euros on transportation.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen specified that 30 million euros will be used to purchase almost 30 million LED lamps.

Emmanuel Macron, who chaired the "energy Ramstein", said France would allocate an extra 76.5 million euros "in the field of electricity and energy", including 27 million euros for the urgent needs of Ukraine in winter. Ukraine will also receive 63 high power generators in addition to the 100 generators that were already sent in November.

How much money is needed to restore Ukraine? In general, the post-war recovery plan for Ukraine is estimated at several hundred billions of dollars, not millions. Experts from Kyiv School of Economics estimated direct losses as of November at more than $135 billion.

Energy infrastructure and industry, according to their observations, were affected the worst. In particular, losses to industrial enterprises increased by $3 billion compared to September and amounted to $13 billion. Losses of energy infrastructure increased to $6.8 billion.

The total amount of damage may be even higher, as there is currently no complete information on the status of Ukrainian enterprises in the temporarily occupied territories as well as detailed information on the destruction of energy infrastructure.

However, it is worth noting that the total destruction of infrastructure as a result of the russian aggression opens the way to the building of a completely new economy and energy system in Ukraine according to modern standards and technologies, which will finally break the bond with the Soviet past.