Winter 2023/24: Ukrainian officials report readiness, Western partners look at belarus with concern

There are less than three months left until the official start of the new heating season. The Ukrainian authorities assure that the preparations are on track, and there are almost no problems in this regard. At the same time, some ministers urge people to buy generators and power banks, and draw attention to the fact that the upcoming winter will be much more challenging than the previous one.

Mind has analysed the latest statements from officials regarding the existing contradictions and potential risks of the future winter.

What is the situation with Ukrainian housing and communal services? Out of over 700 heating facilities that were damaged by the russians, more than 65% have been restored. Heat generation enterprises have been almost fully restored, according to Oleksandr Kubrakov, Minister of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development.

He also specified that the debt of heating enterprises for natural gas amounted to nearly 100 billion UAH. The reason for this debt is the discrepancy between the current heat tariffs, which have been frozen by a moratorium on tariff increases, and the current prices of natural gas. "As a result, heating enterprises cannot settle their gas bills and accumulate financial resources for repairs. All of this combined poses threats to the timely start of the heating season," said the minister.

To improve the situation, he announced a scheme with compensations for the difference between tariffs and gas prices for heating enterprises. However, according to calculations by the industry association Ukrteplokomunenergo, the amount of compensations will only cover "20–25% of the economically justified tariff and the actual financing needs."

Despite this discrepancy, the Ministry of Infrastructure assures that Ukraine will be fully prepared for the new heating season by 1 October. Simultaneously, work is ongoing to ensure backup capacities in case of emergency situations. The State Energy Supervision is monitoring heat utilities in the regions.

What is the current state of the energy system? Minister of Energy German Galushchenko promises that the country's electricity generation needs will be met during the heating season. Before its start, the state plans to provide an additional 1.7 GW of generating capacity and restore 2.9 GW of capacity.

From November to March 2024, all blocks of nuclear power plants located in the territory controlled by Ukraine will operate at 100% capacity (approximately 8 GW).

Efforts are also underway to protect energy system facilities from hostile attacks. One of the measures is the decentralisation of generation through the use of mobile gas turbine units and related infrastructure. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal has announced that the government has "removed bureaucratic barriers" for the construction of overhead power lines and substations.

Another component is the ability to ensure stable electricity transmission through the networks of the Ukrenergo company. The company assures that its substations are ready for peak loads in winter. "We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which includes repeated missile and drone attacks on the energy infrastructure… As for our substations, we are absolutely confident that our main network will be ready to operate without restrictions during the heating season, and provide power to consumers from the Ukrainian energy system without any bottlenecks or limitations," said Volodymyr Kudrytsky, Head of Ukrenergo.

However, he also emphasised that details on the state of the energy system will not be disclosed.

And what about gas? According to government statistics, Ukrainian underground storage facilities have already injected a total of 12.2 billion cubic metres of gas – that is over 80% of the country's heating season needs (minimum – 14 billion cubic metres). However, the ownership structure of this gas is unknown: what proportion belongs to the Naftogaz Ukraine, Ukrainian private companies, or non-resident traders who store it under the 'customs warehouse' regime and can export it at any moment during the heating season.

What could go wrong? There is a particular danger posed by highly probable attacks on the energy infrastructure next winter – gas pipelines and power transmission lines. Their repair and restoration are complicated by the shortage of necessary equipment, which neither domestic manufacturers nor Western partners can quickly provide in full.

Additional risks are also created by possible russian sabotage against the infrastructure in neighbouring countries that could supply natural gas and electricity to our market in case of a shortage.

According to Polish media reports, the American Chamber of Commerce in Poland negatively assessed the level of protection of critical infrastructure within the country in its appeal to Senate Marshal Tomasz Grodzki. Apart from physical security, the United States considers involvement in its management by russia, China, or other non-EU, non-NATO countries or the informal club of "friends and allies of the United States" as risky.

This problem has been underestimated for many years and has become a key geopolitical concern due to the war in Ukraine.

"This year will be challenging when it comes to issues related to the security of energy infrastructure. We must realise that the war in Ukraine is still with us," confirms Anna Łukaszewska-Trzeciakowska, the authorised representative of the Polish government for strategic energy infrastructure.

To enhance energy security, the operator of Polish gas pipelines, Gaz System, has signed an agreement with the territorial defence forces for cooperation.

The Polish government is particularly concerned about the activity of the russian pmc wagner in the border areas with belarus. "Our allies confirm that the Wagner group is highly dangerous and that its forces are being deployed to the eastern flank of NATO to destabilise it," quotes the Twitter account of  Prawo i Sprawiedliwość party (Law and Justice party), citing Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.