Grain crop acreage in Ukraine will decrease by 45% in 2023 – UCAB forecast
The reasons for such a reduction are: reduction of all sown areas, change in the structure of crops and reduction of grain yields
What happened? According to preliminary estimates, in 2023, Ukraine will reduce the grain crop acreage by 45% and the grain harvest will be 60% less compared to the pre-war year 2021.
Source. The website of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).
Details. The reasons for this reduction are: a decrease in all sown areas, a change in the structure of crops and a decrease in grain yields.
As of December 2022, out of 28.4 million hectares of all sown areas that were cultivated in 2021 throughout the territory of our country, 24.6 million hectares (86% of the total territory) are located in the controlled territory of Ukraine, of which another 3.8 million hectares cannot be sown due to proximity to the front line, shell remnants, etc.
The sowing of winter crops has already taken place and a significant reduction of sown areas can be observed. 3.8 million hectares of winter cereals have been sown, which is 26% less compared to the autumn figure of 2021 in the controlled territories and 43% less than the sowing throughout Ukraine.
Given the reduction of fertiliser application by 50-60%, significant unharvested areas of corn in the fields, lack of financing and the need for significant savings, the expected yield will decrease by 10-30% depending on the region and crop compared to the average yield of previous years.
Eventually, the projected gross grain harvest in 2023 may reach 34 mln tonnes, which is 37% less than in 2022 and 60% less than in 2021. As for oilseeds, the gross harvest is expected to reach 19.3 mln tonnes, which is 13% more than in 2022 and 15% less than in 2021.
Taking into account the gross production volumes and domestic needs of Ukraine, the export potential of grains and oilseeds in 2023/24 MY will be about 35 mln tonnes, or 3 mln tonnes per month. For comparison: in 2021/22 MY the export potential was at the level of 85 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds or 7 mln tonnes per month.
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