Freezing Russia's war against Ukraine could lead to Russia's attack on NATO in 6-10 years - study
Russia will have six to ten years to recover and prepare its troops for a direct conflict with NATO
Russia will be ready for a new war in six to ten years if the fighting in Ukraine is put on hold now, experts of the German Society for Foreign Policy believe.
Source. This was reported by ukrayina.pl.
Analysts believe that Russia's military potential is underestimated. The invaders suffered the greatest losses in manpower and equipment. But the occupiers have a developed industry. This will allow them to quickly restore their forces. Then the Kremlin may decide to strike at NATO countries. Most likely, it will try to ignite a conflict with the Baltic states, experts say.
"The window for a possible Russian attack opens as soon as Russia has the impression that an attack, for example, in the Baltic states, could be successful," the study says.
Instead, the Alliance should start preparing for war now. According to analysts, it has 5 to 9 years to do so. After that, it will be difficult to prevent a war.
If the war in Ukraine is "frozen," Moscow will need a maximum of ten years to rebuild its army. During this period, Germany, together with the Alliance, should enable its armed forces to fight Russia. This is the only way to reduce the risk of another war in Europe.
NATO should be able to repel a Russian attack in ten years at the latest, and preferably in six years, the report says.
Despite significant Russian losses in the war against Ukraine, Russia can train about 280,000 recruits a year. In six years, it will be about 1.7 million, and in ten years, about 2.8 million people who have undergone military training.
"Although Moscow failed to achieve all of its military goals, the war has grown into Europe's largest in 75 years. Moscow has also repeatedly threatened individual NATO states and the Alliance as a whole with the use of nuclear weapons," analysts say.
Now Russia is transforming its defense industry into a military economy, using revenues from oil and gas exports, the authors of the study emphasize.
Background. To recap, the Latvian Foreign Minister plans to run for NATO Secretary General in 2024.
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