The world on a diet: who will starve because of the war in Ukraine
And is the war the only reason for that?
There are more than 30,000 edible plants in the world. This is one tenth of all plants that grow on Earth. Such diversity creates the illusion that humanity has variability in the formation of the ration and in case of the absence of one category, it can be easily replaced by other 29,999 categories. Why are things different and what can exactly fill the world food market? How important is Ukraine's role and who is more at risk of remaining hungry in the current environment, Anna Kovalchuk, expert of the “Ukrainian Thought Factory” analytical cluster, shares her thoughts with Mind.
What does humanity eat?
In fact, the world is critically dependent on only three crops. Corn, rice and wheat contain more than half of all calories. Two of these three vital cultures Ukraine produces, being their leading supplier to the world market.
According to the results of the year 2021, Ukraine is among the top 3 global exporters of corn with a rate of 25 million tons and the top 5 suppliers of wheat with a rate of 20+ million tons. It is estimated that these amounts of food are present in the nutrition of 400 million people. The total amount of world calories that are generated by the Black Sea region is 12%. More accurately, they were generated.
How did the war affect the Ukrainian grain market?
This season, Ukraine is dramatically reducing its presence in the world grain market. Due to russia's aggression the Black Sea near Odessa is inaccessible for shipping. Nearly 100 food vessels are unable to reach the Mediterranean region. Alternative export routes, such as motor transport and railways, cover no more than 15% of the potential provided by ports (600,000 tons of grain vs. 5 million tons of grain per month).
The UN agricultural unit, FAO, which insists on calling the war in Ukraine just a “conflict”, is absolutely correct though in estimation of its consequences: in its April report, the forecast for Ukraine's exports of corn was reduced by 12.5 million tons and of wheat by 5 million tons.
The decline in Ukrainian grain production compared to the average annual level is likely to continue next season, as there are doubts that even with zero military aggression, autumn sowing for the year 2023 harvest, taking in consideration the shortage of resources, will be proper. Wheat production in Ukraine may fall even lower than during the last five years: at least 20% of winter crop areas will not be harvested due to both direct damage and lack of resources for harvesting.
At the same time, the external dependence on Ukrainian grain is really very high. Ukrainian politicians and public figures often reference Ukraine's high places in the rating of world food suppliers, rightly pointing out that in such conditions the soonest end of the war is essential for the whole world, otherwise there is a risk of seeing empty plates on your table.
The truth is a little less explicit.
What products Ukraine feeds (fed) the world with?
Ukraine annually exports more than 50 million tons of grain. According to the results of 2021, the top ten countries, which are the main importers, accounted for 2/3 of the total value of all grain exports from our country.
Let's analyze the nominal structure of this top ten: more than half of importers – Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, Libya, Tunisia. These are countries for which the key factor is the cost of grain, they are the grain recipients, brokered by international humanitarian missions. Undoubtedly, their peacekeeping voice can be heard, but it will most likely not be addressed specifically to Ukraine, but in favor of replacing critically missing food volumes from any available source as soon as possible.
The first place in the list of buyers of Ukrainian agricultural products with a huge share of almost 20% is taken by China. That is the state, which: a) in recent years has formed a record domestic food reserves; and b) where political and geopolitical expediency prevails over economic and even humanitarian expediency.
In the list of the top 10 importers are also Turkey, Spain and the Netherlands, in case of which it would be less bold to assume that they will find and pay for an alternative to Ukrainian goods.
Well, the thesis of officials who predict world hunger if Ukraine does not return to the market quickly is generally true. But it needs to be corrected a little: the first countries to suffer are the poor ones, the crisis in which is perceived by the world as normative. This is unfair and immoral, but it must be taken into account so as not to overestimate the impact of the food factor on the progress of ending the war.
According to the World Food Program, in 2022, 44 million people from 38 countries will be on the verge of starvation. Importantly, this forecast was made before the war in Ukraine and the devastating consequences for its agricultural sector, thanks to which the World Food Program purchased 50% of grain of the Black Sea region.
An updated estimate has not yet been determined, but the WFP has already said that taking into account the current prices (wheat prices have risen by 20% since the beginning of the year), the program will be able to reach 4 million fewer people. That means that the way out of the situation is to take food from one starving children to give it to other starving children.
FAO's expected world grain trade in the 2021-2022 season fell by 14.6 million tonnes to 469 million tonnes, which is 2% lower than in the last season. Due to the record high prices and declining supply, the volume of corn trade in the world is expected to be 6.6% lower than in 2020-2021.
Since the number of percents is still very low, these predictions do not look too apocalyptic. But worldwide, the percentage is equivalent to the millions of people who will face food shortages.
Yes, they are unevenly distributed and will experience shortages of Ukrainian products in different ways: while German consumers will be complaining about the lack of mustard or replacing sunflower oil from Ukraine with olive from Greece, a child in Algeria will receive only half the usual bread and her peer in Afghanistan – none. And the voice of a European will be heard much louder than the moans of the other two.
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