ISW: Ukrainian troops are unlikely to be trapped in Kherson
Analysts believe that some russian troops on the right bank will conceal the withdrawal
The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kherson Oblast, aimed at forcing the enemy to retreat beyond the Dnipro River, has apparently been successful.
Source. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Details. Analysts believe that the withdrawal of russian troops is unlikely to become a trap for the Armed Forces.
“russian commanders will certainly attempt to slow Ukrainian advances to maintain an orderly withdrawal, and some forces may remain, but this fighting will be a means to the end of withdrawing as many russian units as possible in good order,” ISW believes.
russian sources state the withdrawal is the result of targeted and systematic Ukrainian strikes that have deprived the russian grouping on the West Bank of its main supply lines, which gradually exhausted them.
The russian information space predictably reacted to the announcement of the withdrawal with varying degrees of ire and concern. Several russian military bloggers emphasis that the withdrawal is the natural consequence of systematic failures within russian military and command structures. They also point out that this is a major defeat for russian forces because they are losing territory that russia annexed and claims as its own.
Nevertheless, the founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose influence on putin is growing, supported the withdrawal and called it the “greatest achievement” made by Surovikin due to his stated desire to preserve the safety of russian troops.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov agreed with Prigozhin’s assessment and claimed Surovikin saved thousands of lives and is seeking more advantageous positions.
The Kremlin and senior russian commanders appear to have learned informational and military lessons from previous failures. russian president vladimir putin has not commented on the withdrawal of troops from Kherson.
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