ISW: Putin is distracting the West with offers of talks to buy time and prepare a new offensive
This looks more like his efforts to delay further Western military aid to Ukraine than a serious interest in ending the war
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzes in its daily summary an article by The New York Times about the signals that Vladimir Putin is sending to the West through proxies about the ceasefire in Ukraine.
The newspaper, citing Russian, American and international officials, reported on Saturday that the Russian president is using backroom channels and intermediaries to signal his interest in a ceasefire (despite Putin's recent public statements to the contrary).
According to the publication, Putin is interested in a ceasefire that freezes the current front line. However, New York Times sources warned that these signals may not reflect the Kremlin's true intentions.
Putin may demand a temporary ceasefire, which would benefit Russia by giving it time to prepare for a new aggression against Ukraine, ISW comments.
At the same time, in December, Putin publicly stated that his maximalist goals in Ukraine – "denazification," "demilitarization" and the imposition of a "neutral status" – remain unchanged, the institute's experts remind.
When Putin allegedly communicates privately about his interest in a ceasefire, it looks more like his efforts to delay and obstruct further Western military assistance to Ukraine than a serious interest in ending the war, the report's authors believe.
The ISW recalls similar attempts by the Kremlin to mislead Western politicians into putting pressure on Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia last winter.
Moscow, according to experts, wanted to redirect the West's attention to hypothetical negotiations instead of providing Kyiv with enough military equipment before the spring-summer counteroffensive.
Currently, the Kremlin is probably using backstage channels to achieve a similar effect amid the debate in the West over further military assistance to Ukraine, the report concludes.
Background. As a reminder, the NYT reported that Putin is sending signals to the West through intermediaries that he is ready for "peaceful" negotiations on Ukraine.
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