British intelligence: Russian radar destroyed in missile attack on Belbek in Crimea

A new post by British military intelligence on the Ministry of Defence's account states that a Russian radar was destroyed during a missile attack on the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea on 31 January.

So far, information about this has come only from anonymous sources in Ukrainian telegram channels. Russia claimed that all Ukrainian missiles were shot down (with some falling in a village neighbouring the airfield).

The Ukrainian armed forces made it clear that the shelling was successful, but did not say what exactly was hit.

British intelligence points to the following consequences of this attack:

It will almost certainly (i.e., analysts put the probability at close to 100%) reduce Russia's ability to control air traffic in the Black Sea region, increase the workload and wear and tear on the A-50 Mainstay (its NATO code name), and reduce the number of trained air traffic controllers.

Russian military doctrine relies heavily on ground control stations, such as the one in Belbek, to coordinate air assets, especially fighter jets. This is especially true in the current environment of ongoing and increasingly complex airspace competition.

British intelligence analysts are equally close to 100 per cent certain that the military operations are causing fatigue among both Russian pilots and ground personnel. With new control units out of action, the pressure will increase even more, increasing the likelihood of mistakes and miscalculations.

Background. On 1 February, Humeniuk reported that Crimea was attacked by five missiles: they hit the Belbek airfield and damaged aircraft. Russian tactical aviation is mainly based in Crimea.