NYT: Ukraine's air defence can survive without Western supplies of shells only until March

Ukraine's air defence systems are facing a shortage of shells: if there are no replenishments in the near future, they will last until March. The New York Times reports this with reference to an assessment by US officials.

Western officials and military experts warn that without US assistance, Ukraine could experience a "cascading collapse" along the front later this year. They note that this will happen no sooner than in a few months. But without external support, they add, it is hard to see how Ukraine will be able to hold its ground on the battlefield.

The NYT's interlocutors believe that by March of this year, it will be difficult for Ukraine to launch local counterattacks, and by early summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may face difficulties in repelling enemy attacks. The newspaper's sources warn that the greatest shortage of ammunition is felt in the area of Avdiivka.

Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces use only a third of the required number of artillery shells daily to hold their positions, the Financial Times reports. Most US supplies have been effectively halted, and the process of expanding arms production in the European Union is not moving fast enough.

The allocation of military aid to Ukraine remains a matter of disagreement in the US Congress. Last week, a draft bill to provide a military aid package worth about $60bn was pre-approved by senators. Now it is up to the Senate and the House of Representatives to vote on it.

Background. As a reminder, NATO has stated that Ukraine's situation at the frontline is difficult due to the end of US funding. There are concerns that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will run out of ammunition for artillery and air defence systems.