Russians used a tactical surprise in Avdiivka - ISW

A part of the Russian army has improved its tactical capabilities and used tactical surprise in recent weeks in the area of Avdiivka. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that this indicates that some elements of the Russian army may have learned tactical adaptations during offensive operations in Ukraine.

According to the ISW report, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets published a retrospective on Russia's attempt to capture Avdiivka. He stated that Russian troops were able to tactically regroup and shift the focus of their offensive operations from the Avdiivka Coke Plant, located in the northwest of the city, to the north-eastern part of the area.

In this way, according to Mashovets, Russian troops achieved a regrouping and tactical shift without the Ukrainian military realising it.

"Russian troops initially began their pivotal movement through Avdiivka after making tactical gains in northeastern Avdiivka, and Mashovets' report suggests that Russian forces may have advanced in the area due to tactical surprise," the report says.

The analysts note that even a limited tactical surprise, where the attacking force engages the defenders at a time, place or manner for which the defenders are unprepared, is a notable event, given that both Russian and Ukrainian forces have wide visibility along the entire front line.

Military observers have not observed other instances of tactical surprise by Russia. Therefore, the ability to do so near Avdiivka does not necessarily indicate a significant Russian capability. "Russian forces have demonstrated limited tactical-level adaptations in certain areas of the front, but Russia's continued tactical failures throughout Ukraine suggest that the Russian military command has not learned and disseminated all possible tactical adaptations to all the various groups of Russian forces operating in Ukraine," ISW writes.

After capturing Avdiivka, Russians are trying to seize other areas in the Donetsk region. The spokesman for the Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops, Dmytro Lykhoviy, said that Russian troops are sending large forces to capture Novomykhailivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda and Krasnohorivka in the Novopavlivka sector of Donetsk region.

He also added that Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, despite the fact that the enemy continues to try to capture the area.