russia’s mobilization will not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate most of its occupied territories until winter – ISW

What happened? “Partial mobilization” in russia will not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate most of its occupied territories until winter.

Source. Report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Details. According to analysts, putin’s order to mobilize part of russia’s “trained” reserve, who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant russian combat power for months. Reservists will only be able to sustain the current levels of russian military strength by offsetting russian casualties.

The mobilization process will take place in deliberate phases, so there will be no sudden influx of russian forces that could dramatically change the course of the war. In addition, the army of the russian federation likely called up the most combat-capable reserves during the pre-war mobilization. This suggests that less combat-ready personnel will be recruited this time.

ISW notes that the russian reserves are poorly trained and receive no refresher training after the end of the conscription term. Mandatory military service lasts only one year, which does not give conscripts enough time to learn how to be soldiers.

“The absence of refresher training after that initial period accelerates the degradation of learned soldier skills over time. Shoigu referred to the intent of calling up reservists with ‘combat experience’, but very few russian reservists other than those now serving in Ukraine have any combat experience,” analysts note.

Previously. Mind reported that a partial mobilization had been announced in russia.