All scenarios are negative: What is the model of Ukraine's future economy?
And why it's a positive thing
The whole world is digitalizing, and the cost of goods is falling to zero. It is turning the economy into a free economy. And what can you make money on if everything is free? Food is free, electricity is free, and the state has become a game that we control with the Diya app. Social practices adopt the latest technologies and thus change the world. To understand what the economy will be like in the future, we need to look at technologies that already exist but for which there is not yet sufficient social demand. It is the point of the future. Andriy Dligach, CEO of Advanter Group, strategist, futurist, and investor, spoke about this and many other things at the EASE Miracle gathering. Mind summarized the most interesting thoughts from his speech.
What will happen next?
At first, it will be worse for a while. We will go through all the crises, the world will go through blackouts. However, in 2025-2026, the time will come for a new order. The new world is based on four pillars. The first is trust. In the new world, reputation is crucial. The second is a world in which there is no longer any loyalty: neither to employees nor to customers. You constantly need to keep people's interest and attention. The third is cooperation. It is now worth much more than an expert's position. The fourth is the world of positive thinking, not those who constantly live in the 'things will get worse' model.
No fundamentally new technologies will be developed. So, the same areas of life will continue to develop. For example, professions: accountants will be fully automated, but they will become creators in this area. Neural networks and artificial intelligence will drive the world for the next 10 years.
The next trend is gaming. Ukraine has 20% of the global game development market. Its growth alone can double the country's GDP. It will determine not only the gaming industry because everything in the new world will be games: entertainment, business, work, and travel. Everything will be transformed into gaming platforms, on the one hand, and commercial platforms, on the other, because Amazon will not exist in the future. Amazon Prime will be there, but as a set of services because human behaviour is changing. Everything should be like a game for a three-year-old. If in the future you have to search through the catalogue, you have already lost.
What will happen in Ukraine?
There are many scenarios. The Ukrainian economy is undervalued nearly five times. A Ukrainian working outside the country generates 12 times more GDP than in Ukraine. Since the early 1990s, 9-10 million people have been working abroad, while in Ukraine, about 13 million. Our economy is raw material-based, and productivity is low. For example, the IT sector is service-oriented. In metallurgy and the agricultural sector, export of final products amounts to tens of per cent. At the same time, 98% of IT exports are services. We do not create products.
Ukraine is now like a compressed spring; we are ready at the value level, but not at the economic level. The country lacks economic freedoms. As long as the state holds on to paternalistic models, we will not have tax reform.
Another deterioration is the demographic situation, as the number of people living in Ukraine is decreasing due to ageing and migration. Now there are 28 million people in Ukraine, of which 11 million are pensioners, 12 million are disabled, and 5 million are civil servants. The future of Ukraine is multiculturalism. We will have to learn English rather than forget russian. Syrians, Lebanese, and Iranians can come to us, and the Arabic-Turkish language will be spoken in Ukraine.
Read also: Ukrainian business outlines the main problems in its relations with the government
The most likely scenario will never work
In the basic scenario, we will have an enlarged state. And after a conditional victory, it will not be women who will come to men, but men who will come to women because they have already adapted there. The economy will obviously decline because after the victory, the emotional attitude towards Ukrainians as those who need help will disappear. A Ukrainian victory without an economic victory is a disaster. Therefore, nothing positive is expected, except for only one thing.
The first positive news is that in Ukraine, basic scenarios never happen; if this is the most likely scenario, it will be the exact opposite. The second positive news is that the future is not created by itself, the future is created by people.
Ukrainians can create a country that will be successful and of which we will be proud.
Read also: Who is to rebuild Ukraine: Key recommendations by the German Marshall Fund
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