A drone in the back: It's high time Ukraine used food as leverage against Iran. What can be done today?
Refusal to export grain to the homeland of «mopeds» is a merely symbolic move, but it must be made
For the second week Ukraine has been attacked by kamikaze drones. The avowed purpose of the attacks was critical, primarily energy infrastructure. However, along with strikes on thermal power plants, drones have already claimed the lives of dozens of Ukrainians. On 17 October alone, five people, including a pregnant woman, were killed when a drone hit a residential building in Kyiv.
Drones are a cheaper substitute for high-precision missiles which russia has been saving on for strikes at radar systems, artillery pieces and other targets. russia is unable to increase manufacture of them, in part due to the shortage of chips and other electronics, the supply of which was hit by anti-Russian sanctions.
In mid-August, this deficit was reported to be filled by Iran who sold Russia Mohajer-6 and Shahed combat drones. Unofficial reports say the deal was concluded during vladimir putin's visit to Iran in July 2022. In that case Tehran also received a promise to withdraw some russian troops from Syria and transfer military bases to Iranian soldiers in exchange for the supply of UAVs. How many drones were supplied by Iran to the Russian army is exactly unknown. According to US military intelligence, hundreds of items were in question. Iran denies any facts of sending weapons to Russia.
To recap, the first Shahed was shot down on 13 September in the Kharkiv sector. Later, drones attacked Odesa.
Read also: What is jarring in the sky? or How the Armed Forces down Iranian kamikaze drones
According to the Washington Post, an agreement was recently reached on the supply of another batch of drones by Iran, as well as short-range ballistic "surface-to-surface" missiles capable of hitting targets at a 300 to 700 km range. This means, in fact, that Iran has sided with russia in the war against Ukraine. How can our country respond?
What does Iran import? Due to natural and climatic conditions, Iran is a net importer of food. Being a rich country, whose main income is generated by the oil and gas sector contrary to international sanctions, Iran could afford such purchases. This lasted until three years ago, when the country was almost completely isolated against the background of a significant deterioration in international relations, with the US in particular.
According to USDA, during the last three seasons the share of imported corn averaged 85% of the domestic consumption in Iran, barley – 45%, wheat – 20%. At the same time, in 2021/22 MY the share of imported wheat increased sharply – up to 36% (8 mln tonnes), compared with 13% a season earlier, and the domestic production of the grain fell by 30%, to 10 mln tonnes, due to the drought.
What does Iran buy in Ukraine? Ukraine was one of the most important suppliers of food to Iran, although the dynamics of supply volumes was diverse. Thus, in 2013, various goods worth $792 million were supplied there, and in 2015 – for $534 million. More than 90% in the composition of supplies at all stages were agricultural products and food industry products.
In 2015, Iran negotiated a significant increase in food imports with the new post-revolutionary Ukrainian government. It was a question of $1.5 billion annual supplies. The main product categories that Iran was interested in were cereals, oil, corn, barley and soybeans – that is, exactly what Ukraine is traditionally strong in.
As of year-end 2017, Iran entered the top 10 largest importers of Ukrainian agricultural products, taking the ninth place. Iran's share in Ukrainian exports was about 3%.
In 2021, Iran ranked seventh in the rating of importers of Ukrainian grain, purchasing $ 533 million of it. According to the Foreign Ministry, trade between Ukraine and Iran at the time amounted to $723.7 million, including exports of goods – $624.9 million, imports – $98.8 million.
The essence of Ukrainian exports has traditionally been agricultural products and foodstuff, 97%. Ukraine imports mainly fruits and nuts, vegetables and their derivatives, pharmaceuticals.
That is, the severance of trade relations as a reaction to indirect aggression seems to be a logical move, more painful for Iran than for Ukraine. Is it so?
Who is Iran even more closely connected to by "import ties"? No matter how important Ukrainian grain supplies were for Iran, the country has another partner, whose foodstuff importance has been systematically – and obviously deliberately – growing and is now crucial. This is russia.
According to the results of the marketing year that ended (July 2021 – June 2022), Iran ranked second among the leading buyers of russian grain, importing 7.8 million tonnes, which corresponds to almost 100% of the country's import needs. Ukrainian exports of all crops last year in commodity equivalent amounted to about 1.5 million tonnes.
The amount of grain exports to Iran from russia in January–August, 2022 through the Makhachkala Sea Trade Port (MSTP) – a key link in the transport system with Iran – increased by 60% compared to a year earlier and reached 142,000 tonnes. Last year, 87,000 tonnes of grain were shipped to Iran through the port.
Moreover, since the beginning of 2022, the MSTP has processed more than 108,000 tonnes of Iranian cement. Compared to the same period in 2021, the volumes have doubled.
The intensification of trade relations between the two countries began to show in May: Tehran and moscow were united by common sanctions. In July this year, it was announced that Iran plans to "significantly increase" the amount of agricultural purchases from the rf.
Data: FAO
Can Ukraine put pressure on Iran with foodstuffs? Based on the imbalance in trade volumes, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian ban on agricultural exports will force Iran to change its mind and curtail military agreements with Russia. However, even if this move looks symbolic, it is likely to be made. Not only by Ukraine, but also by its partners.
The United States and the European Union have already announced tougher sanctions against Iran, as the latter's cooperation with russia is seen as a threat to the whole world. And Ukrainian MPs plan to draft a bill severing diplomatic relations with Iran and recognising this country a sponsor of terrorism.
How Ukrainian-Iranian relations evolved
1992 – The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between Ukraine and Iran was signed; embassies of the two countries started to work.
1992, April – President of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk made his first visit to Iran. The Declaration of Principles of Friendship was signed, containing, among other things, a commitment to mutual respect for sovereignty.
1996 – the first session of the Intergovernmental Ukrainian-Iranian Joint Commission for Economic and Trade Cooperation.
2001 – Prime Minister of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko and Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ivan Pliushch visited Iran.
2002 – Iranian President Mohammad Khatami visited Ukraine.
2013 – Ukrainian delegation participated in the inaugural celebrations of President Hassan Rouhani.
2016 – the Joint Commission for Economic and Trade Cooperation met after an 11-year break.
2020, January – On 8 January morning, a Ukraine International Airlines jet was shot down by a missile launched by the military after taking off from Tehran airport. 167 passengers and 9 crew members were killed. Ukraine and Iran conducted lengthy and mostly unsuccessful negotiations on the investigation of the disaster and paying compensation.
2022, August – media reported that Iran supplied Russia with about a thousand Shahed kamikaze drones.
23 September, 2022 – Ukraine decided to deprive the Iranian Ambassador of accreditation, as well as to reduce the number of diplomatic staff of the Embassy.
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