Accidents on the Nord Stream pipelines: russia blames the USA, the West suspects russia, and Northern Europe puts into operation a gas pipeline that competes with the Nord Stream ones
Whose interests are affected by the incident and why it is called a “fair payback to the russian federation” for its aggression in Ukraine
Yesterday, on 27 September, a ceremony was held dedicated to the completion of the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline designed for the supply of Norwegian gas to Poland and neighbouring countries. The event was attended by high-ranking officials from Poland, Norway and Denmark, a transit country for the new route, as well as representatives of the companies implementing the project.
The first deliveries of gas to European consumers via the Baltic Pipe will begin next Saturday, 1 October. Additional amounts of “blue fuel” from Norway will strengthen the role of this country in the European energy market, where it took the pole position in pipeline gas supplies this summer, replacing russia.
The celebrations that took place at the compressor station in Goleniów, Poland, unfolded against the background of high-profile events that befell Gazprom's pipelines, which compete with Baltic Pipe. This refers to large-scale gas leaks from Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 in underwater areas in the Baltic Sea. How are all these events interrelated, what are the versions of what really happened, and how strong is their impact on the upcoming heating season?
What happened to the Nord Stream pipelines? Poland, Norway and Denmark have claimed deliberate sabotage. Swedish seismologists recorded two powerful explosions in the area of both Nord Stream pipelines at about the same time when data about depressurisation of gas pipelines and gas leakage appeared. Experts believe that these were deliberately organised explosions, the power of which was equivalent to detonation of more than 100 kg of dynamite.
Who could be involved in this? Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki believes that russia could have caused the incidents on both Nord Stream pipelines.
Radosław Sikorski, the former Minister of Defence and Foreign Affairs of Poland, tweeted a message under a photo of the Danish Ministry of Defence, which reveals the consequences of a gas leak in the Baltic Sea as a result of sabotage:
“Ukraine and all the Baltic Sea States have been opposing Nord Stream for 20 years. Now a scrap metal worth $20 billion lies at the bottom of the sea. This is another payback to russia for its criminal decision to invade Ukraine. Someone in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation conducted a special maintenance operation.”
Swedish police have launched their own investigation, preliminarily classifying the event as consequences of “gross sabotage.”
Who is promoting the version of “American trail”? Pro-russian commentators actively supported the idea that the United States or even “Ukrainian combat divers” acting on the instructions of “curators from Washington” could be involved in the depressurisation of the Nord Stream pipelines. However, they associated it with American revenge for the accident at the Freeport LNG export terminal that occurred in June and led to a significant reduction in the supply of American gas to Europe.
Credibility to this explanation was added by the American press, in which information that FBI agents were involved in the investigation of the incident at Freeport LNG was circulating in the summer. John Arnold, a prominent gas trader who retains his prestige in American business circles, considered it plausible amid the tense conditions prevailing in the energy market. “I'm the guy always disparaging conspiracy theories. But I find this one that russian hackers blew up a Texas LNG facility to be plausible and logical enough to merit serious attention,” he wrote on his Twitter page.
What really happened in the deep waters of the Baltic Sea, where the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines are located, should be revealed by the investigation, which, in addition to Sweden, was announced by Poland, Denmark and Norway.
What was the U.S. response? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that American experts were ready to support this investigation. “There are initial reports indicating that the gas leak may be the result of an attack or sabotage, but we haven’t confirmed them yet. However, this event was clearly in no one’s interest,” said Blinken. He believes that the situation with both Nord Stream pipelines will not affect Europe's energy security.
What was the reaction of the Nord Stream pipelines operator? The Nord Stream AG operator, which is controlled by Gazprom, issued a statement that the drop in pressure in the gas pipeline suggests physical damage that caused the depressurisation. The company failed to name the terms of the resumption of operation of this gas route, it promised to “use all resources to assess the damage” instead.
The kremlin has stopped the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 for political reasons. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is not ready for operation because it has not passed certification (Germany froze the process of issuing documents on 24 February, when russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine).
Presumably, additional tension on the market will be created by threats from Gazprom to stop gas transit to Europe via Ukraine, which the russian monopoly warned about the day before.
How will the accidents on the Nord Stream pipelines affect the energy supply in winter? Be that as it may, Europe is successfully preparing to get through the heating season without the supply of russian gas, despite existing restrictions.
The more actively opinion leaders that are controlled by the kremlin deny the complicity of the russian federation in the sabotage on the Nord Streams and accuse the West of provocations, the stronger is the confidence in the market that the causes of the incident are rooted in the territory of russia.
And while stock market speculators benefit from the information stir, Ukraine and its Western allies are strengthening the protection of energy facilities to avoid accidents in the winter season, when they can cause the greatest harm to consumers.
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